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NYT worried about losing black voters



Thomas B. Edsall of the New York Times is worried about the inroads President Donald John Trump has made among black voters. While he does not mention such factors as record low unemployment or criminal justice reform, Edsall realizes the president threatens the Democrat Party's post-segregation hold on black voters.

In a column, he laid out his case for worry. President Donald John Trump is making his case to black voters.

Edsall wrote, "The drive includes highly visible television advertising, including an $11 million Super Bowl commercial, along with ad purchases in local black newspapers and on radio stations; Black Voices for Trump; storefronts in key battleground states; and a sustained social media campaign directed at black voters whose consumer, religious and demographic profiles suggest potential support, including on such issues as immigration, abortion, gender roles and gay rights."

BlackPAC, a Democrat group, found the Trump re-election campaign has contacted nearly 30% of black voters.

Edsall wrote, "The Public Religion Research Institute most recent series of weekly surveys, conducted from late March through December 2019 with a total of 40,000 interviews, show that Trump’s positive numbers among African-Americans, although still low, have more than doubled. Jones pointed out by email that Trump’s favorability rating among black voters overall increased from 7% in 2016 to 18% in 2019, with a large gender gap; Trump’s favorability rating among black men in 2019 was 23% and 14% among black women."

President Trump does not need many black votes. He won last time with 8% of the black vote. Anything over that is gravy, but he can get a gravy train rolling for the next Republican presidential nominee.

Edsall looked at Detroit, which is 79% black.

He wrote, "In 2012, Barack Obama won the city with 281,743 votes to Mitt Romney’s 6,019. Four years later, Hillary Clinton won Detroit, 234,871 to Trump’s 7,682. Trump modestly improved on Romney by 1,663 voters, but Clinton saw a 46,872-vote drop from 2012."

This is old fashioned political arithmetic. Obama barreled out of Detroit with 275,000 more votes than Mittens. Hillary had a 227,000 lead. Obama won Michigan by 449,000 votes. She lost by 10,000.

Edsall wrote, "Assuming that the 2020 election is close, any increase in defections, or a repeat of the relatively low black turnout of 2016, could seriously endanger Democratic prospects. Clearly the Trump campaign understands this, but it remains uncertain whether the Democratic Party does."

The party does not get it. President Trump is playing the long game. Democrats are stuck in 2016. They are too hung up on having a plurality then. They think they just have to gin up turnout. What they fail to realize is they need some of his voters to flip.

President Trump won without a majority or even a plurality of votes. While the president has reached out to the most stubbornly Democrat voting bloc, Democrats have failed to reach out to try to convert Trump supporters. Oh, they talk a good game about flipping Texas but their plan is to import voters from Mexico and California.

As long as Democrats write off 46% of the electorate as too deplorable for their party, they will remain locked out of the Oval Office.

And without challenging the president's base, Democrats liberate him to go after their base. And he decided to go after the toughest group to convert. Donald Trump dreams big. His success rate should alarm Democrats.

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